mesothelioma survival rates australia,mesothelioma survival rates uk,mesothelioma survival rates after surgery,mesothelioma survival rates wiki,mesothelioma mortality rates,mesothelioma survival rate stage 1,mesothelioma survival rate by stage,mesothelioma survival rate stage 2,mesothelioma survival rate without treatment,mesothelioma survival rate 2015,peritoneal mesothelioma survival rates,mesothelioma survival rates in usa introduction,abdominal mesothelioma survival rates,mesothelioma prognosis survival,stage 4 mesothelioma survival rates,survival rates mesothelioma cancer,survival rates for mesothelioma,survival rates for malignant mesothelioma,what is mesothelioma survival rates,survival rates of mesothelioma,mesothelioma surgery survival rates,insurance quotes,insurance companies,insurance near me,insurance broker,insurance definition,insurance auto auction,insurance premium,insurance adjuster,insurance marketplace,insurance deductible,insurance in spanish,insurance agent salary,insurance journal,insurance jobs,insurance agent,insuranceclaimcheck,insurance companies near me,insurance license,insurance car,insurance agency,insurance agents near me,insurance auto,insurance adjuster jobs,insurance agency near me,insurance agent jobs,insurance actuary,insurance attorney,insurance agent job description,insurance adjuster license,insurance associates,insurance adjuster salary,insurance agent license,insurance agency for sale,insurance appraiser,insurance binder,insurance broker near me,insurance broker salary,insurance breast pump,insurance by the mile,insurance bond,insurance broker license,insurance bee,insurance broker definition,insurance beneficiary,insurance blackjack,insurance broker vs agent,insurance business,insurance bad faith,insurance brokerage firms,insurance blockchain,insurance brokers of mn,insurance board,insurance claim,insurance commissioner,insurance card,insurance claim check,insurance calculator,insurance can help you,insurance company ratings,insurance carrier,insurance coverage,insurance commercials,insurance claims adjuster,insurance comparison,insurance companies in florida,insurance commission,insurance cost,insurance careers,insurance declaration page,insurance depot,insurance doctor,insurance designations,insurance direct,insurance declaration,insurance department,insurance discounts,insurance defense,insurance def,insurance dental,insurance dictionary,insurance defense attorney,insurance degree,insurance design administrators,insurance denial codes,insurance donut hole,insurance estimator,insurance exchange,insurance express,insurance endorsement,insurance exam,insurance etf,insurance enrollment,insurance exchange of america,insurance education,insurance eob,insurance exemption,insurance effective date,insurance estimate car,insurance education association,insurance examiner,insurance estimator jobs,insurance epo,insurance expense asset or liability,insurance exposure,insurance for dogs,insurance for kids,insurance for cars,insurance for veterans,insurance fraud investigator,insurance forums,insurance for college students,insurance for students,insurance for pregnant women,insurance for small business,insurance for rental cars,insurance form for taxes,insurance for less,insurance for braces,insurance for pets,insurance for dummies,insurance for rental property,insurance for teens,insurance for uber drivers,insurance geico,insurance group number,insurance general,insurance group,insurance giant,insurance glossary,insurance group number on card,insurance guy,insurance gov,insurance gap,insurance gif,insurance ga,insurance general agent,insurance guarantee association,insurance gap between jobs,insurance group of america,insurance girl,insurance game,insurance guaranty fund,insurance health,insurance house,insurance handbook for the medical office,insurance hub,insurance hmo,insurance headhunters,insurance history,insurance holder,insurance health companies,insurance humor,insurance hit and run,insurance hsa,insurance hours,insurance helper,insurance hra,insurance hotline,insurance huntsville al,insurance humana,insurance helpline,insurance insider,insurance institute for highway safety,insurance industry,insurance investigator,insurance institute,insurance information institute,insurance institute of america,insurance is a financial service that allows a,insurance icon,insurance inspector,insurance in blackjack,insurance investigator jobs,insurance industry trends,insurance id number,insurance industry news,insurance internships,insurance images,insurance intermediaries inc,insurance jobs near me,insurance jokes,insurance jobs from home,insurance jobs atlanta,insurance jobs salary,insurance jobs for nurses,insurance jobs houston,insurance jingles,insurance jobs tampa,insurance job titles,insurance jobs san diego,insurance jobs charlotte nc,insurance jobs denver,insurance jobs richmond va,insurance jobs san antonio,insurance jobs in ct,insurance jobs in nj,insurance king,insurance king commercial,insurance key terms,insurance kaiser,insurance king rockford il,insurance king reviews,insurance knowledge,insurance ky,insurance killeen tx,insurance kansas city,insurance king ohio,insurance kentucky,insurance kennewick wa,insurance keywords,insurance keeps going up,insurance kalamazoo,insurance king hours,insurance klamath falls,insurance kannapolis nc,insurance kpis,insurance lawyer,insurance leads,insurance lapse,insurance logos,insurance land,insurance law,insurance license ca,insurance linked securities,insurance license classes,insurance license texas,insurance life event,insurance license ga,insurance license exam,insurance license lookup ca,insurance license nc,insurance loss ratio,insurance lounge,insurance license search,insurance mandate,insurance meaning,insurance meme,insurance management services,insurance medical,insurance marketing,insurance mga,insurance mandate 2018,insurance management group,insurance man,insurance marketing ideas,insurance manager salary,insurance mayhem,insurance magazines,insurance mart,insurance manager,insurance michigan,insurance m,insurance news,insurance navy,insurance number,insurance noodle,insurance nation,insurance news net,insurance nurse jobs,insurance network,insurance now,insurance names,insurance nexus,insurance national producer number,insurance nurse,insurance nationwide,insurance naic number,insurance navigator,insurance news articles,insurance nerds,insurance online,insurance one,insurance office of america,insurance on the spot,insurance open enrollment,insurance options,insurance offers consumers,insurance online quote,insurance one agency,insurance on the go,insurance offices near me,insurance overload,insurance on a new car,insurance out of pocket,insurance on a leased car,insurance on rental car,insurance open today,insurance on a camaro,insurance on iphone,insurance policy,insurance policy number,insurance plans,insurance panda,insurance penalty,insurance providers,insurance policy definition,insurance places near me,insurance penalty 2017,insurance producer,insurance progressive,insurance plus,insurance places,insurance prices,insurance proceeds taxable,insurance penalty 2018,insurance ppo,insurance payor,insurance quote online,insurance quotes car,insurance quotes texas,insurance quote geico,insurance qualifying event,insurance questions,insurance quotes ga,insurance quote progressive,insurance quotes florida,insurance quotes health,insurance quotes nj,insurance quote state farm,insurance quotes ny,insurance quotes pa,insurance quizlet,insurance quote comparison,insurance quotes az,insurance quotes michigan,insurance rates,insurance rider,insurance risk,insurance reimbursement,insurance recruiters,insurance reviews,insurance rates by state,insurance risk manager,insurance retention,insurance rate calculator,insurance risk services,insurance rates by car,insurance regulation,insurance rebating,insurance reserves,insurance resume,insurance rental car,insurance rn jobs,insurance referral,insurance sales,insurance services,insurance service center,insurance services office,insurance solutions,insurance sales jobs,insurance sales agent,insurance specialist,insurance score,insurance subscriber,insurance schools,insurance sales salary,insurance stocks,insurance scams,insurance state farm,insurance settlement,insurance subscriber number,insurance synonyms,insurance slogans,insurance terms,insurance types,insurance tax form,insurance to go,insurance tpa,insurance test,insurance types word search,insurance training,insurance technology,insurance the general,insurance that covers ivf,insurance trust,insurance tax penalty 2018,insurance tax credit,insurance thought leadership,insurance total loss,insurance that covers braces,insurance tax penalty 2017,insurance tax,insurance underwriter,insurance underwriter salary,insurance underwriter jobs,insurance unlimited,insurance umbrella,insurance underwriting process,insurance usaa,insurance umbrella policy,insurance underwriter definition,insurance usps,insurance until 26,insurance uber,insurance university,insurance utah,insurance umr,insurance united,insurance usps cost,insurance underwriter resume,insurance underwriter training,insurance verification,insurance verification form,insurance verification jobs,insurance value,insurance verification specialist,insurance vocabulary,insurance verifier,insurance verizon,insurance vin check,insurance value chain,insurance violation,insurance value of my car,insurance verifier salary,insurance vs assurance,insurance verification salary,insurance verification specialist resume,insurance verification training,insurance veterans,insurance verification specialist job description,insurance verification letter,assurance wireless,insurance world,insurance waiver,insurance work from home jobs,insurance warehouse,insurance website builder,insurance wiki,insurance west,insurance wholesaler,insurance when buying a new car,insurance waiting period,insurance with the general,insurance work from home,insurance wichita ks,insurance write off,insurance words,assurance wireless customer service,insurance with no car,insurance x dates,insurance xchange,insurance xpress,insurance xenia ohio,insurance x dates leads,insurance x c u,insurance co,insurance xactimate,insurance xchange bustleton ave,insurance xfinity mobile,insurance xml standards,insurance x date definition,insurance check,insurance xol,insurance xl catlin,insurance xl,insurance xl group,insurance yuma az,insurance yakima,insurance york pa,insurance yuba city,insurance you can buy online,insurance you need,insurance youtube,insurance yellow book,insurance yelp,insurance yukon ok,insurance you almost had it,insurance yearly cost,insurance yonkers ny,insurance year,insurance yugioh,insurance yuba city ca,insurance youngstown ohio,insurance yanceyville nc,insurance you should have,insurance yuma,insurance zebra,insurance zone,insurance zone destin,insurance zombie apocalypse,insurance zone destin fl,insurance zurich,insurance zip code rating,insurance zephyrhills fl,insurance zipcar,insurance zebra review,insurance zeeland mi,insurance zanesville ohio,insurance zander,insurance zebulon nc,insurance zip code,insurance zenni optical,insurance zachary la,insurance zebulon ga,insurance zebra crunchbase,insurance quotes online,insurance quotes geico,insurance quotes comparison,insurance quotes colorado,insurance quotes california,insurance quotes sc,insurance quotes indiana,insurance quotes ky,insurance quotes allstate
home design,house plans,house designs,home plans,house design,living room design,home interior design,small house plans,bedroom design,home interior,house interior design,house floor plans,house decoration,building plans,small house design,interior design websites,floor plans,home design plans,interior design for living room,home floor plans,new home designs,room design,best home design,small home design,modern house design,house interior,new house design,small home plans,cottage house plans,house blueprints,modern house plans,best interior design,new home plans,custom home plans,modern home design,house building plans,house plan design,best house designs,bedroom interior design,craftsman house plans,home building plans,ranch house plans,custom house plans,architecture design for home,simple house plans,design your own house,bedroom interior,design your home,best house plans,country house plans,small house floor plans,blueprint homes,house plans and more,one story house plans,custom home designs,design my home,bungalow house plans,house designers,ranch style house plans,bedroom designer,dream house plans,exterior home design,modern home plans,contemporary house designs,home decor,latest home design,interior home decoration,new house plans,house plans and designs,contemporary house plans,design for house,best interior design websites,narrow lot house plans,design my own house,interior design,room interior design,single story house plans,home dizayn,design my house,design your house,beach house plans,ranch home plans,new home floor plans,house construction plan,dream home plans,home and design,modern interior design,house interior decoration,designer houses,craftsman style house plans,beautiful house plans,craftsman home plans,custom home floor plans,designer house,2 story house plans,home construction plans,custom floor plans,desing home,home design websites,new interior design,interior design sites,residential building plans,architecture design house,simple house design,french country house plans,interior home,dream home design,unique house plans,contemporary home design,residential house plans,exterior house design,design your own house plans,ranch floor plans,contemporary interior design,mediterranean house plans,shop interior design,home decoration design,home building design,homeinteriors,build your own house plans,house plans with porches,in home design,interior decoration,best home interior design,design your dream house,home plans and more,at home design,architectural design house plans,new home interior design,architectural house plans,contemporary home plans,house design and floor plan,my house plans,house layout plans,home architecture,colonial house plans,house design inside,house models and plans,two storey house plans,open floor house plans,small space interior design,dizain home,country style house plans,european house plans,house design websites,indian interior design,home layout planner,home dezine,open plan house,2 storey house plans,new house floor plans,building design,townhouse designs and floor plans,house plan drawing,h0me design,home designer architectural,modern floor plans,large house plans,home inside design,in house design,latest home interior design,building design plan,living room decor ideas,architectural floor plans,architectural home plans,new house interior design,architecture and design houses,single level house plans,hd home design,home floor plan designer,home plans and designs,country house design,traditional house plans,house layout,home design home design,model house plan,virtual interior design,interior design books,house building design,dream home floor plans,design interior,home decor ideas,house inner design,home by design,home house design,home design software,cottage home plans,house floor plan design,interior design magazine,italian interior design,house decorating ideas,floor plan designer,home house plans,home get dizain,house design software,best home plans,home internal design,best home interior design websites,new home blueprints,internal house design,interior design images,home design sites,home interior ideas,building plans and designs,my house design,houses and plans,modern house floor plans,home interior design ideas,classic interior design,unique home plans,beach house designs,home inner design,interior design software,home interiors catalog,custom home blueprints,internal decoration of house,interior design online,interior decorating ideas,modern home interior design,blueprint house plans,residential blueprints,interior design ideas,living room design ideas,new style home design,new house plans and prices,home design images,home get design,interior design ideas for living room,3d home design software,house layout design,home design furniture,new construction house plans,custom house designs,house floor plans and prices,house plans online,villa designs and floor plans,home designs and interiors,bedroom design ideas,house plan interior design,villa plans and designs,residential home plans,residential design,home indoor design,interior home plans,new build house designs,find house plans,modern decor ideas,home interior design websites,big house plans,car interior design,interior designer,home design online,beautiful home interior designs,dream house floor plans,home design interior design,interior design photos,unusual house plans,country home plans,residential floor plans,free home design software,interior design ideas bedroom,simple house floor plan,unique house designs,decoration ideas,new home building plans,interior design styles,residential house design,new model house interior design,home design app,free house plans,free home plans,residential house design plans,project house,luxury house design,house model,i design homes,house building plans and prices,architectural design home plans,new dizain home,house design online,great house plans,designer in the house,house indoor design,narrow house plans,house plans floor plans,house and home plans,office interior design ideas,home design 3d,build your own home plans,new home layouts,find house blueprints,homes and interiors,beautiful house interior design,house floor design,country home designs,room design ideas,dizajn home,house get dizain,home design home,house plans by design,townhouse plans,new design home plans,interior design games,interior ideas,my home plan,house interior design ideas,free interior design software,floor plans for building a house,luxury house floor plans,how to design a house,blueprint home plans,a house design,new house blueprints,new home construction plans,home design design,new house plan design,home design magazines,home design ideas,dream house blueprints,house design house design,new latest home design,modern contemporary interior design,best house interior designs,latest house interior designs,3d interior design,home plans with photos,all home design,house and design,house blueprint maker,house room design,home interiors,home blueprint designer,3d house plans,hom design,house blueprint designer,interior colour design,home builders floor plans,luxury home design,3d house design,new home floor plans and prices,house projects plans,home planners inc house plans,design your own home online,house to home designs,plan your home design,house design sites,modern interior design ideas,latest house designs,new build designs,home design house plans,h0use plans,from house design,home interior design plans,custom home design plans,home floor design,build your own house floor plans,where to find house plans,design plan,home designs and floor plans,the best home design,your home design,indoor house design,architectural design floor plans,what is interior design,best home interiors,villa design plan,where to get house plans,interior decorating styles,condo interior design,residential building design plans,interior design pictures,family home plans,contemporary interior designers,interior design portfolio,a home design,house design ideas,home design inside style,design from home,house pictures designs,build it house plans,internal home decoration,homes models and plans,cheap interior design,architectural design plans,interior house plans,house plan maker,interior design help,new house room design,house layout maker,best dizain home,new build floor plans,hd house design,house architecture,house dsgn,house building blueprints,build your home,apartment interior design,in design homes,home out design,latest building designs and plans,residential house plans and designs,home design and decor,home decoration tips,new build house plans,interior design tips,interior design and decoration,in house designer,architectural design,build your house,home building blueprints,house in design,get design house,custom house blueprints,interior design trends,interior design blogs,home ideas,interior design show,design your own home plans,house creator,in home designer,build own house plans,french interior design,designers homes,house of interior design,house room interior design,architectural plans,house designer builder,architecture design house interior,free interior design,home design photo,house construction plans and designs,interior design inspiration,build house plans design,virtual home design,home for design,housing blueprints floor plans,home interior design photos,home design free,home room design,house and home design,latest model home design,blueprints for my home,interior design stores,design your house plans,famous interior designers,inhouse plans,inside house designs plans,the home designers,history of interior design,cheap hotels,booking hotel,hotel deals,booking hotels,last minute hotel deals,hotel room,hotel search,hotel finder,hotel websites,discount hotels,last minute hotels,hotel booking sites,cheap hotel rooms,cheap hotel deals,book hotels,hotels near me,best hotel deals,hotel prices,hotel reservations,online hotel booking,cheap accommodation,cheap rooms,hotel sites,best hotel prices,hotel rates,discount hotel sites,cheap hotel rooms near me,hotel booking websites,find cheap hotels,hotel search engines,cheap hotel booking,motel,cheap hotel sites,best hotel booking site,nearby hotels,hotels near,cheap hotel prices,hotel comparison,budget hotel,cheap motels,hotel chains,best hotels,best hotel rates,hotel search sites,local hotels,hotel room booking,discount hotel rooms,luxury hotels,hotel s,boutique hotel,hotel booking offers,best hotel website,hotels in,hotel online,low cost hotels,hotel last minute,the hotel,hotel packages,book accommodation,cheap hotel websites,hotel accommodation,a hotel,low price hotels,cheap hotel reservations,5 star hotel,discount hotel rates,lowest hotel rates,cheap hotel rates,hotel reservation sites,hotel rentals,hotel breakers,hotel a,cheap hotel booking sites,cheap hotels in,suite,hotels rooms,hotel offers,hotel bargains,hotel suites,cheap hotel suites,best hotel finder,hotel rate,hotel deal sites,cheap last minute hotels,find hotel deals,best hotel sites,discount hotel websites,cheap hotel search,airport hotel,late hotel deals,discount hotel deals,find hotel rooms,hotel room prices,hotel room deals,suite hotels,best cheap hotels,motel discounts,cheap hotel stays,best hotel search,cheap hotel offers,accommodation sites,great hotel deals,hotel deals websites,hotel finder websites,travel hotel,hotel finder sites,hotel resort,affordable hotels,cheap hotel rentals,hotel booking deals,hotel room booking sites,top hotel,last minute hotel booking,hotel booking discount,discount hotel prices,beach hotel,discount rooms,looking for hotels,find hotels near address,last minute hotel rooms,hotel suite,cheap cheap hotels,find me a hotel,very cheap hotels,where to book cheap hotels,cheap hotel discounts,five star hotel,hotel room finder,online hotel reservation,good deals on hotels,discount hotel reservations,where to find cheap hotels,hotel deals near me,book cheap hotels online,where to book hotels,inexpensive hotels,bargain hotel deals,bookit hotels,hotel price finder,cheap hotel accommodation,best hotel booking,best hotel rooms,hotel room rates,book cheap hotel rooms,business hotel,hotel inn,best site to find hotels,hotel at,cheap lodges,websites to book hotels,hotel prices near me,hotels and resorts,hotel room search,cheap hotel packages,find cheap hotel rooms,cheapest site to book hotels,discount accommodation,com hotel,best hotel discount sites,best deals on hotel rooms,cheap hotel breaks,hotel room reservation,find me a hotel room,reserve hotel,good cheap hotels,low cost hotel rooms,best price hotel rooms,hotels downtown,cheap hotels i,online hotel deals,discount hotel booking sites,late hotels,best hotel discounts,cheap luxury hotels,cheap hotel booking website,hotels on,hotel reservation websites,room deal,the cheapest hotel,hotel accommodation deals,hotels cheap hotels,cheap accommodation deals,cheapest place to book hotels,book a room near me,hotel search websites,hotel hotel,best hotel rates online,looking for cheap hotels,4 star hotel,cheap hotels at,find cheap hotel deals,hotel room websites,hotel price search,get cheap hotel rates,gets hotel,get cheap hotels,discount lodging,3 star hotel,websites to find cheap hotels,get hotel deals,places to book hotels,economy hotel,cheapest website to book hotels,hotel room sites,hot deals hotels,search hotel deals,book hotel reservations,find cheap hotel rates,find me a cheap hotel,cheap hotels on,area hotel,best site for hotel deals,best hotel price finder,book cheap rooms,low price hotel rooms,hotels around,best offers on hotel booking,booking hotels in,a cheap hotel,to book a hotel,bargain hotel rooms,cheap hotels motels,cheapest hotel rates online,late hotel rooms,where can i find cheap hotels,find best hotel rates,cheap hotel chains,where to find cheap hotel deals,inexpensive hotel rooms,hotel bargain sites,low price hotel booking,best website to find hotels,hotel offers near me,find best hotel deals,best deal in hotel booking,hotel suite deals,lowest hotel deals,hotel motel,good hotel prices,cheap hotels online,find lodging,great hotel rates,where to get cheap hotels,looking for hotel deals,book hotel now,hotel rate finder,best website to find cheap hotels,hotel savings sites,web booking hotel,book cheap accommodation,search all hotels,discount hotel suites,hotel hotel hotel,cheap hotels and motels,where to book hotel,hotel booking in,discount luxury hotels,websites to book cheap hotels,find cheap motels,reservation hotel,cheap room rates,sites to find cheap hotels,great hotel prices,best site for cheap hotels,compare hotel prices,cheap accommodation sites,find discount hotels,get cheap hotel rooms,sites to book cheap hotels,hotel booking cheapest rates,discount hotel search,best place to book hotels,hotel for,book hotel with,i need a hotel room,cheap lodge deals,hotels uk,find available hotel rooms,find cheap rooms,find a hotel room near me,hotels in price,hotel low cost,cheap hotel room rates,family hotel,best price for hotel booking,hotel rate search,the hotel book,find cheap accommodation,hotel france,extended stay hotels,where to find hotels,find hotel prices,book a room hotel,cheap discount hotel rooms,best cheap hotel finder,hotel directory,hotell,find hotels online,hotel de charme,hotel suite finder,budget hotel booking,special hotel rates,cheap hotel deals and discounts,affordable hotel rooms,get a hotel room,cheap hotel specials,book hotel accommodation,hotel motel discounts,accommodation low priced,find cheap hotel prices,pet friendly hotels,book in hotels,cheap hotels a,romantic hotels,find cheap hotels online,cheap and hotel,aparthotel,hotel club,compare hotel rates,hotels near me booking,cheap hotel reservations online,cheap and best hotel,hotel reservation service,awesome hotel,hotel room booking website,cheap hotel room websites,low price hotels near me,hotel specials,best site to look for hotels,all suites hotel,cheap motels nearby,hotel reviews,best hotel room rates,hotel savings websites,find hotel availability,hotel saving sites,how to find cheap hotels,website of hotel,four star hotel,best site to book cheap hotels,a hotel booking,cheap reservations,rooms hotel,cheap hotel room sites,hotel rooms online,best site to find hotel deals,hotel availability finder,cheapest hotel deals online,discount accommodation sites,to book a hotel room,hotel travel,find the hotel,great hotel deals near me,bellagio hotel,address hotel,accommodation booking websites,best website to book cheap hotels,cheap hotel deals near me,for hotel reservations,discount hotel stays,disneyland hotel,cheapest hotel prices online,luxor hotel,hotel rooms in,places to stay,hotels and prices,hotel suite search,booking in a hotel,reasonable hotel rooms,metatrader 4,forex trading,forex valuta,forex demo,forex pro,trader forex,forex robot,fx forex,forex signals,forex eur usd,bonus forex,forex euro,expert advisor,forex trading software,forex usd,forex spread,forex strategie,valuta forex,valuta trading,forex dollar,forex trading for dummies,forex trading in india,options trading,forex for dummies,trading on line,forex indonesia,trading online,currency trading for dummies,trading platforms,forex handel,online share trading,day trading software,forex trading training,forex trading course,fx trading,forex malaysia,online stock trading,share trading,trading signals,trading software,forex trading platforms,canadian forex,forex bonus,top forex,learn forex trading,forex demo account,free forex signals,stock market trading,best forex signals,stock trading,best forex trading platform,best forex broker,best online trading stocks,stock trading software,forex trading tutorial,how to trade forex,fx broker,online trading,online trading account,forex trading tips,commodity trading,forex trading books,forex training,forex trading for beginners,daytrading,forex trading strategies,belajar forex,ea forex,day trading,online broker,online trading platforms,automated trading,cfd trading,forex trading signals,currency trading,trading courses,i forex,forex broker,forex uk,forex analysis,forex account,what is forex trading,trading account,broker forex,foreign exchange trading,metatrader,forex ea,intraday trading,top forex brokers,forex investing,forex for beginners,online forex trading,meta trader 4,day trade,forex indicators,trading,day trading stocks,forex trading basics,currency options trading,trading strategies,forex strategies,futures trading,forex trading demo,forex trading system,forex forecast,metatrader 5,forex simulator,no deposit bonus forex,forex trading hours,gold trader,trading system,live forex charts,fx trader,forex market,day trader,forex kontor,forex trading broker,paper trading,forex exchange,how to trade currency,trade market,managed forex accounts,forex currency,day trading strategies,instaforex,forex strategy,simulated forex trading,forex australia,forex reviews,forex trading reviews,forex books,learn forex,forex technical analysis,forex charts,best forex robot,forex online,best online trading,forex tips,forex options,free forex charts,ukforex,forum forex,online forex,forex capital,scalping forex,forexlive,forex forum,dailyfx,stock trading strategies,forex trading australia,forex india,forex software,best forex strategy,forex pdf,forex platform,foreign currency trading,fx options,automated trading system,cfd,forex news,finanzas forex,forex currency exchange,forex education,spread trading,forex trading education,lite forex,currency market,forex club,forex rate,best forex,fibonacci trading,fx market,forex broker reviews,gold forex,global forex,foreign currency,forex company,forex tutorial,forex exchange rate,online currency trading,fx charts,money trade,forex calculator,iforex,technical analysis,forex blog,oanda forex,swing trading,what is forex,e forex,fx signals,foreign currency exchange,forex day trading,trading markets,forex bank,forex signal provider,forex contest,exchange rate,forex news live,forex market hours,fxcm,forex tester,easy forex,forex trend,option trading software,foreign exchange market,forex money,forex trading uk,forex system,foreign currency exchange rates,best forex indicator,trend trading,online trading software,forexworld,pip forex,how to do forex trading,foreign exchange,swiss forex,fibonacci forex,forex capital markets,forex trading forex rates forex market,forex brokers list,forex trading account,online commodity trading,forex course,forex wiki,fx trading platforms,forex basics,currency chart,trader,live forex rates,فركس,forex signal service,currency exchange rate,forex school,what is leverage in forex,alpari,forex money exchange,forex quotes,forex predictions,foreign exchange broker,fx currency,currency broker,forex currency rates,forex currency trading,fx street,automated forex trading,forex converter,forex business,forex calendar,forex currency converter,currency rate,ecn forex,best forex platform,metastock,foreign exchange calculator,forex affiliate,forex expert advisor,mt4 forex,forex cargo,master forex,fx exchange,4x trading,forex exchange market,currency trading tips,guide for forex trading,forex directory,forex historical data,hedging forex,money forex,fx trading strategies,forex market news,forex mobile,forex game,forex trading forum,forex trading robot,real time forex,forest trading,internet trading,gft forex,forex broker comparison,accurate forex signals,forex market analysis,forex scam,free forex trading,forex trading times,forex cfd,global forex trading,forex futures,forex metatrader,fx news,forex trading charts,forex trading simulator,cms forex,forex trading news,free forex,live forex trading,forex video,forex practice account,traders,what is forex market,forex data,fx pro,fx rates,currency trading basics,forex bot,forex guide,forex training course,best forex trading system,forex trading companies,action forex,forex jobs,what is fx trading,forex peace army,forex website,forex metal,what is currency trading,bforex trading,free forex robot,forex alerts,online foreign exchange,forex on line,management accounting,go forex,best forex trading software,fx online,x forex,about forex trading,forex trading wiki,learn to day trade,free forex trading signals,expert advisors,forex profit,currencies,change money forex,forex help,best forex traders,forex trader pro,forex arbitrage,forex advisor,day trading online,forex factory,forex trading scams,forex ebook,about forex,forex trading website,forex mentor,currency trading strategies,capital forex,managed forex,forex download,automated forex trading software,jutawan forex,forex charting software,forex tools,fx account,forex seminar,currency exchange,learn forex trading online,free forex training,forex market trading,forex auto trader,forexmarket,forex trading plan,forex göteborg,how to forex,forex broker rating,forex secrets,forex exchange trading,forex services,real forex,earnforex,forex stock,swing trading forex,forex trading school,forex history,stock market trading software,forex trading practice,free forex trading course,stock trading system,commodity futures trading,forex brokerage,forex chat,treding forex,forex dealers,easy forex trading,ava forex,forex marketing,forex trading sites,currency trading platforms,i forex trading,forex scalping system,metatrader brokers,currency calculator,forex forex,spot forex,best forex software,what is margin in forex,forex sites,forex trading tools,fapturbo,forex management,forex trading indicators,forex tv,all about forex trading,forex trading techniques,day trading courses,forex capital market,forex tsd,currency futures trading,forex trading game,online forex trading platforms,forex megadroid,forex trading contest,forex trading room,forex pairs,forex trading secrets,forex foreign exchange,currency,forex trading analysis,online forex brokers,automatic forex trading,online forex trading course,best forex system,the forex,reuters forex,forex trading adalah,forex price,online forex trading account,forex expert,future,commodity,learn currency trading,forex signals software,forex information,currency market trading,bforex online trading,fx forex trading,automated forex trading system,cmc forex,forex bank valuta,online future trading,currency converter,futures trading software,acm forex,forex fund,forex options trading,currency trading software,online forex trading forex,forex program,online forex exchange,forex practice,managed forex trading,forex trading blog,online fx trading,forex trading seminar,fx trading signals,futures trading system,forex ab,forex trend trading,stock market day trading,international forex trading,system forex,fx trading software,4x market,forex bank logga in,automatic forex trading software,free forex trading software,make money forex trading,the forex market,forex advice,forex trading information,forex trading mentors,forex autopilot,forex made easy,currency trading account,make money with forex,what is forex trading all about,fortex trading,forex global,where to trade forex,what is forex exchange,fx currency trading,forex day trading strategies,online forex trading system,forex mini account,gci forex,currency exchange trading,forex killer,interbank fx,what is bforex,forex futures trading,whats forex,currency news trading,what's forex trading,introducing broker forex,fx trading system,currency trading courses,currency forex online trading,spot forex trading,forex t,forex norge,best forex training,day trading systems,all about forex,forex trading programs,mini forex,forex c,market maker forex,currency trading system,forex trading usa,forex easy,fx money exchange,mobile forex trading,forex trading club,currency trading brokers,microfx,forex kontakt,forex trading methods,autofx,forex currency broker,forex daytrading,que es forex trading,forex yard,forex recommendations,forex trading made easy,currency option trading,what's forex,fx money,in forex,4x forex,online foreign exchange trading,forex micro,trade and forex,when to trade forex,forex money changer,online forex training,forex trading signals software,how to trade in forex market,forex trading services,fibonacci forex trading,forex research,forex trading advice,foreign exchange currency trading,forex bank internetbank,förex,currency trading charts,forex in,what is iforex,forex trading alerts,forex bank ab,interbank forex,forex now,forex trading what is it,about forex market,ex forex,marketing fx,fx automated trading,forex day trading system,free forex trading systems,forex best,what is bforex trading,fx trader exchange rates,forex bank malmö,forex english,what is iforex and how does it work,crown forex,pro forex,forex trading today,forex trading station,forex trading forex,currency trading training,define forex trading,forex bank göteborg,currency trading site,foreign exchange market trading,forex bank kontakt,forex market today,forex trading money,fx dealer,forex bank norway,bank forex trading,day trading currency,tentang forex trading,what is forex trading online,forex bank kundtjänst,forex bank öppettider,forex bank login,forex commentary,on line trading forex,forex forex trading,forex automoney,mini forex trading,forex trading forex rates forex,international forex market,currency trading website,trader fx,forex exchange sweden,fortex bank,currency trading signals,how to trade in foreign exchange market,how does forex exchange work,what is foreign exchange trading,online forex market,forex currency market,forexd,forex currency trading system,4x currency trading,forex trading explained,www forec,how to trade foreign currency online,forex trading info,international currency trading
The Fed and Treasury say they're not going to try the trillion-dollar coin idea to avoid the debt limit. But the episode is very revealing about how our fiscal and monetary policies work, (or don't, as the case may be), numerous misconceptions floating around, and leads to a thought on a better way to approach the same objectives, which might be a useful compromise for both sides.
I. Why the limit binds
First, just to be clear, let me clarify the playlist:
Well, no, which is really interesting.
For the Fed to "print money," meaning to create reserves, it has to buy some other asset. Though the Fed can manufacture money costlessly, it legally can only do so by buying assets. The Fed cannot engage in fiscal policy, and printing up checks and sending them to taxpayers -- or even dropping cash from helicopters -- is fiscal, not monetary policy.
And the debt limit applies to all Federal debt outstanding, including debt held by the Fed. So, as long as the Fed buys only Treasury bills, the debt limit does, in fact, stop the government as a whole from "printing money" (creating reserves) to pay bills. To do so, the Treasury has to issue debt, borrowing the money, pay its bills, and then get the Fed to buy the debt, so that in the end there is more money outstanding. But a debt limit stops this operation.
Well, the Treasury has the actual printing presses that make good old fashioned cash. Why can't the Treasury just print up money and use it to pay bills? (Or, deposit the cash at the Fed, thereby get reserves, and transfer the reserves by writing checks.) No, that's illegal too. The Treasury prints the bills, but they can only be issued by the Fed, and in return for already-created reserves.
So the architects of our monetary system and debt limit weren't so dumb after all. Though we have a fiat money system, and, drawing a circle around the whole government, it should be able just to print money and give it to people (social security) or buy tanks and stuff with the printed money, the debt limit does pretty well constrain the government budget.
To emphasize, this isn't about a fight between Treasury and Fed. They can agree they want to print money to evade the debt limit. But they still can't do it. It's a limit on what the government as a whole can do.
II. Clever solutions
So, our army of clever lawyers and policy wonks is hard at work finding loopholes, either ways to create "debt" that doesn't count as debt, or ways to print money to pay bills anyway.
Here's where the trillion dollar coin idea came up. Apparently, though the Treasury is not allowed to print money or regular coins and pay bills with them, it can issue "commemorative" coins and sell them directly. So, most simply, it could in principle, pay for a trillion dollars of deficit by minting a trillion dollars worth of commemorative coins. (Coins are just metallic dollar bills; they don't have a metallic value equal to face value.)
That's not very practical. But as a little favor to the platinum lobby, there is no limit to the denomination of platinum coins the Treasury can issue. So, the idea is this: make a trillion dollar coin out of platinum. Deposit the coin at the Fed, just as the Treasury now deposits cash. The Fed creates a trillion worth of reserves in the Treasury's checking account, and the Treasury can merrily write checks.
If the Fed goes along and sells its roughly $1 trillion dollars of Treasury securities, it can soak up that new cash, putting debt in private hands. For the first trillion, the government isn't even "printing money," it is exactly as if the Treasury borrowed a trillion dollars by issuing a trillion of new debt.
(Small update: Many commenters note agency debt. Thanks. As the Fed has about a trillion dollars of Federal debt, so the other agencies have about $5 trillion dollars. Selling the Social Security "trust fund" would work exactly the same way, and effectively borrow money without busting the debt limit. And it's a lot bigger. Tom Saving explains here. To fund payments other than Social Security, the Treasury would have to come up with some way of telling Social Security "we promise to pay you back" that didn't count as "Federal Debt." I don't know the laws that limit this action. But it's surprising that so much blogosphere creativity has gone in to spending the Fed's $1 trillion rather than the much larger pot of agency debt.)
James Pethokoukis at the AEI covers a few more clever ideas. There are various ways that the US government could essentially send tradeable IOUs in place of checks, as California did, avoiding its "balanced budget" rules and the prohibition on states issuing currency. Cash is, in the end, no more or less than a tradeable IOU of the US government.
A less obvious and more realistic option strikes me as important going forward. I assumed above that the Fed only buys Treasury bills when it creates reserves out of thin air. But that's no longer true. During the financial crisis, the Fed bought commercial paper, and lent directly to various financial institutions. (It called the loan an "asset" on its balance sheet, so it seems like the Fed is buying something of value.) Now it is buying and holding mortgage-backed securities.
This is fiscal policy. When the Fed lends directly or buys assets other than Treasuries, the total debt + money increases. The traditional restriction that the Fed should only buy Treasuries separates it from fiscal policy. As some of James' clever ideas point out, you just have to be a bit clever to channel this newly-created money to social security recipients.
III. Default
One of the silliest constantly-repeated red herrings is that running in to the debt limit will force the US to default on its debts and cause a global financial disaster. (This goes right up there with "Greek default will force it off the Euro" in the fallacies-casually-repeated-as-facts department.)
Just yesterday, driving in to teach my Saturday morning MBA class, Scott Simon's soothing voice on NPR introduced a trillion-dollar coin piece with the statement
This is simply a red herring. Social security checks might stop, farm price support payments might stop, they might have to send the TSA home from airports and let the NRA take care of security (joke here, please don't go nuts). All this might cause a lot of hardship, but there is nothing forcing the government to default. Default would be a choice.
OK, NPR can be forgiven for passing along this trope. But what's Paul Krugman doing with this obvious... I'm having a hard time finding a polite word...piece of misinformation? Writing in the actual Times, which is supposed to be fact-checked:
In his blog, he's less circumspect
Update: In an official statement, the White House chimes in
However, there is some news here about the long-run chance of US default. I started this whole blog with my previous view that the US can always print its way out of fiscal trouble. While we might have inflation, a nation that borrows in its own currency should always be able avoid the costs of explicit default.
Now it's not so clear. The laws limiting spending by money-printing in the face of a debt limit are surprisingly effective. Faced with really disastrous spending cuts - and a trillion per year is more than just farm price supports and windmill subsidies -- and not being able to print money, our government might in fact be tempted to default. Not in a big way, but in the usual muddle that governments do. It could delay interest payments for example, or force exchange of maturing debt for new longer-term debt. But Krugman's right, such shenanigans would seriously impact the stature of US debt in financial markets, which tolerate inflation but do not tolerate explicit default.
Moreover, let's think about what happens when the "debt limit" is not imposed by Congressional action, but by bond markets refusing to lend anymore. I had always thought this would mean monetization and inflation. But the chance it could mean default, truly Greek-style, is raised, at least up from zero, by these limits on monetization.
These are far-off low-probability scenarios. Still, the possibility of explicit default -- not now, not next year, but once things get really bad -- is not as remote as I had thought.
Which, by the way, is not necessarily a bad thing. Governments who really cannot monetize their debts but must repay them or face the horrible costs of default tend to figure out how to balance their budgets, and they get better interest rates.
IV A better ceiling?
These occasional battles over the debt ceiling are pretty obviously not an ideal way to run fiscal policy. But they do have an important function in the political battle to limit spending.
Such devices are important. Though we hear repeated over and over that the debt limit just finances the same spending that Congress passes, any household knows that a budget is a good idea. When one spouse wants to go get another six pack, the other one may be able to point to a budget and enforce spending priorities.
And for Congress too, a budget would be a useful and better way to limit spending. Lay out both taxing and spending, preferably over a number of years, and then stick to it. The budget then takes on the force of an overall constraint; Congress can say to a worthy petitioner, "We would love to help, but if we give it to you we have to take it from someone else; the budget won't let us do it."
However, the law requiring Congress to pass a budget seems not to have the same force as this set of laws governing the debt ceiling. (Ironic tone). Also, budget numbers are so full of accounting tricks and gimmicks, that even passing a budget can fail to have the strong force limiting spending that one would hope. It was budget rules that gave us "temporary" Bush tax rate changes in the first place.
By contrast, the actual amount that the government has to go out and borrow is a hard number, and it seems to pose a stronger constraint than the budget act. That makes it a blunt instrument, but a more useful instrument than the fine instrument that seems not to work.
But occasional crises are obviously not a good way to impose a bit of discipline. So, herewith a modest proposal in two parts:
First, fix the remaining loopholes. No platinum coins. Federal "debt" should include Federal Reserve liabilities (cash and reserves) net of Treasury debt held by the Fed. Harvest the creative work of the blogosphere from the past few months, and reinforce the ceiling.
Second, in place of a single ceiling, that is then periodically raised by a few trillion after a big fight, put in a ceiling path. If $1 trillion deficits ($80 billion per month) seem like a lot, renew the debt ceiling at $50 billion per month this year, and $40 billion per month next year.
So, the law reads, "the debt ceiling shall be $16,050 billion on March 1 2013, $16,100 on April 1 2013, $16,150 on May 1 2013..." (I'm obviously simplifying) This is a constraint on spending that would not cause a periodic game of chicken, and might actually have some force.
I. Why the limit binds
First, just to be clear, let me clarify the playlist:
- Debt: US government bonds, issued by the Treasury. Promises to pay for your healthcare is not "debt," and if the government reneges on that promise it's not a "default."
- Cash: Bills and coins.
- Reserves: Essentially checking accounts at the Fed. Banks may freely obtain cash in return for reserves and vice versa.We often say "the Fed prints money" when in fact what it does is to create reserves.
Well, no, which is really interesting.
For the Fed to "print money," meaning to create reserves, it has to buy some other asset. Though the Fed can manufacture money costlessly, it legally can only do so by buying assets. The Fed cannot engage in fiscal policy, and printing up checks and sending them to taxpayers -- or even dropping cash from helicopters -- is fiscal, not monetary policy.
And the debt limit applies to all Federal debt outstanding, including debt held by the Fed. So, as long as the Fed buys only Treasury bills, the debt limit does, in fact, stop the government as a whole from "printing money" (creating reserves) to pay bills. To do so, the Treasury has to issue debt, borrowing the money, pay its bills, and then get the Fed to buy the debt, so that in the end there is more money outstanding. But a debt limit stops this operation.
Well, the Treasury has the actual printing presses that make good old fashioned cash. Why can't the Treasury just print up money and use it to pay bills? (Or, deposit the cash at the Fed, thereby get reserves, and transfer the reserves by writing checks.) No, that's illegal too. The Treasury prints the bills, but they can only be issued by the Fed, and in return for already-created reserves.
So the architects of our monetary system and debt limit weren't so dumb after all. Though we have a fiat money system, and, drawing a circle around the whole government, it should be able just to print money and give it to people (social security) or buy tanks and stuff with the printed money, the debt limit does pretty well constrain the government budget.
To emphasize, this isn't about a fight between Treasury and Fed. They can agree they want to print money to evade the debt limit. But they still can't do it. It's a limit on what the government as a whole can do.
II. Clever solutions
So, our army of clever lawyers and policy wonks is hard at work finding loopholes, either ways to create "debt" that doesn't count as debt, or ways to print money to pay bills anyway.
Here's where the trillion dollar coin idea came up. Apparently, though the Treasury is not allowed to print money or regular coins and pay bills with them, it can issue "commemorative" coins and sell them directly. So, most simply, it could in principle, pay for a trillion dollars of deficit by minting a trillion dollars worth of commemorative coins. (Coins are just metallic dollar bills; they don't have a metallic value equal to face value.)
That's not very practical. But as a little favor to the platinum lobby, there is no limit to the denomination of platinum coins the Treasury can issue. So, the idea is this: make a trillion dollar coin out of platinum. Deposit the coin at the Fed, just as the Treasury now deposits cash. The Fed creates a trillion worth of reserves in the Treasury's checking account, and the Treasury can merrily write checks.
If the Fed goes along and sells its roughly $1 trillion dollars of Treasury securities, it can soak up that new cash, putting debt in private hands. For the first trillion, the government isn't even "printing money," it is exactly as if the Treasury borrowed a trillion dollars by issuing a trillion of new debt.
(Small update: Many commenters note agency debt. Thanks. As the Fed has about a trillion dollars of Federal debt, so the other agencies have about $5 trillion dollars. Selling the Social Security "trust fund" would work exactly the same way, and effectively borrow money without busting the debt limit. And it's a lot bigger. Tom Saving explains here. To fund payments other than Social Security, the Treasury would have to come up with some way of telling Social Security "we promise to pay you back" that didn't count as "Federal Debt." I don't know the laws that limit this action. But it's surprising that so much blogosphere creativity has gone in to spending the Fed's $1 trillion rather than the much larger pot of agency debt.)
James Pethokoukis at the AEI covers a few more clever ideas. There are various ways that the US government could essentially send tradeable IOUs in place of checks, as California did, avoiding its "balanced budget" rules and the prohibition on states issuing currency. Cash is, in the end, no more or less than a tradeable IOU of the US government.
A less obvious and more realistic option strikes me as important going forward. I assumed above that the Fed only buys Treasury bills when it creates reserves out of thin air. But that's no longer true. During the financial crisis, the Fed bought commercial paper, and lent directly to various financial institutions. (It called the loan an "asset" on its balance sheet, so it seems like the Fed is buying something of value.) Now it is buying and holding mortgage-backed securities.
This is fiscal policy. When the Fed lends directly or buys assets other than Treasuries, the total debt + money increases. The traditional restriction that the Fed should only buy Treasuries separates it from fiscal policy. As some of James' clever ideas point out, you just have to be a bit clever to channel this newly-created money to social security recipients.
III. Default
One of the silliest constantly-repeated red herrings is that running in to the debt limit will force the US to default on its debts and cause a global financial disaster. (This goes right up there with "Greek default will force it off the Euro" in the fallacies-casually-repeated-as-facts department.)
Just yesterday, driving in to teach my Saturday morning MBA class, Scott Simon's soothing voice on NPR introduced a trillion-dollar coin piece with the statement
... it will certainly be no laughing matter if the U. S. Congress refuses to raise the borrowing limit and the U. S. government defaults on its debt. ...No Scott, (or NPR writers). If a $100 bond comes due, the Treasury can sell a new $100 bond to pay off the principal without increasing the total amount of debt. And there's still $2.5 trillion of tax revenue coming in. That's plenty to cover interest payments. If anything, the law is pretty clear that interest payments on the debt are the last thing the government can stop paying, not the first.
This is simply a red herring. Social security checks might stop, farm price support payments might stop, they might have to send the TSA home from airports and let the NRA take care of security (joke here, please don't go nuts). All this might cause a lot of hardship, but there is nothing forcing the government to default. Default would be a choice.
OK, NPR can be forgiven for passing along this trope. But what's Paul Krugman doing with this obvious... I'm having a hard time finding a polite word...piece of misinformation? Writing in the actual Times, which is supposed to be fact-checked:
Finally, just consider the vileness of that G.O.P. threat. If we were to hit the debt ceiling, the U.S. government would end up defaulting on many of its obligations. This would have disastrous effects on financial markets, the economy, and our standing in the world.Parse that carefully for Clintonian veracity. "Defaulting on its obligations" could mean not paying promised farm price supports, or delaying payments (as the State of Illinois does) to vendors, not actual default on Federal debt. So it's just a nanometer this side of factually incorrect. But you'd have to be very knowledgeable not to infer from the following sentence "disastrous effect on financial markets" that Krugman is not talking about actual "default" (a term meaning "not paying back bonds") from this more metaphorical sort of "default" (meaning breaking an implicit promise).
In his blog, he's less circumspect
By contrast, nobody really knows what happens if America defaults, even briefly. The whole structure of world financial markets is built around the use of Treasury bills as the ultimate safe asset; what happens if they lose that status? It would certainly be an interesting experiment, but one best carried out if you have plenty of bottled water and spare ammunition in your basement.I agreed on the consequences of default. But, as much as he dislikes Republicans and the debt ceiling, passing on the canard that hitting the ceiling implies a default on Treasury debt is just a little... here we go a search for a polite word again...misleading, no matter how useful it would be to the give-in-and-spend side of the debate if those obstructionist Republicans were to believe it.
Update: In an official statement, the White House chimes in
“There are only two options to deal with the debt limit: Congress can pay its bills or it can fail to act and put the nation into default. When Congressional Republicans played politics with this issue last time, putting us at the edge of default, it was a blow to our economic recovery, causing our nation’s credit rating to be downgraded. The President and the American people won’t tolerate Congressional Republicans holding the American economy hostage again simply so they can force disastrous cuts to Medicare and other programs the middle class depend on while protecting the wealthy. Congress needs to do its job.”My emphasis. The war on the English language continues. End update
However, there is some news here about the long-run chance of US default. I started this whole blog with my previous view that the US can always print its way out of fiscal trouble. While we might have inflation, a nation that borrows in its own currency should always be able avoid the costs of explicit default.
Now it's not so clear. The laws limiting spending by money-printing in the face of a debt limit are surprisingly effective. Faced with really disastrous spending cuts - and a trillion per year is more than just farm price supports and windmill subsidies -- and not being able to print money, our government might in fact be tempted to default. Not in a big way, but in the usual muddle that governments do. It could delay interest payments for example, or force exchange of maturing debt for new longer-term debt. But Krugman's right, such shenanigans would seriously impact the stature of US debt in financial markets, which tolerate inflation but do not tolerate explicit default.
Moreover, let's think about what happens when the "debt limit" is not imposed by Congressional action, but by bond markets refusing to lend anymore. I had always thought this would mean monetization and inflation. But the chance it could mean default, truly Greek-style, is raised, at least up from zero, by these limits on monetization.
These are far-off low-probability scenarios. Still, the possibility of explicit default -- not now, not next year, but once things get really bad -- is not as remote as I had thought.
Which, by the way, is not necessarily a bad thing. Governments who really cannot monetize their debts but must repay them or face the horrible costs of default tend to figure out how to balance their budgets, and they get better interest rates.
IV A better ceiling?
These occasional battles over the debt ceiling are pretty obviously not an ideal way to run fiscal policy. But they do have an important function in the political battle to limit spending.
Such devices are important. Though we hear repeated over and over that the debt limit just finances the same spending that Congress passes, any household knows that a budget is a good idea. When one spouse wants to go get another six pack, the other one may be able to point to a budget and enforce spending priorities.
And for Congress too, a budget would be a useful and better way to limit spending. Lay out both taxing and spending, preferably over a number of years, and then stick to it. The budget then takes on the force of an overall constraint; Congress can say to a worthy petitioner, "We would love to help, but if we give it to you we have to take it from someone else; the budget won't let us do it."
However, the law requiring Congress to pass a budget seems not to have the same force as this set of laws governing the debt ceiling. (Ironic tone). Also, budget numbers are so full of accounting tricks and gimmicks, that even passing a budget can fail to have the strong force limiting spending that one would hope. It was budget rules that gave us "temporary" Bush tax rate changes in the first place.
By contrast, the actual amount that the government has to go out and borrow is a hard number, and it seems to pose a stronger constraint than the budget act. That makes it a blunt instrument, but a more useful instrument than the fine instrument that seems not to work.
But occasional crises are obviously not a good way to impose a bit of discipline. So, herewith a modest proposal in two parts:
First, fix the remaining loopholes. No platinum coins. Federal "debt" should include Federal Reserve liabilities (cash and reserves) net of Treasury debt held by the Fed. Harvest the creative work of the blogosphere from the past few months, and reinforce the ceiling.
Second, in place of a single ceiling, that is then periodically raised by a few trillion after a big fight, put in a ceiling path. If $1 trillion deficits ($80 billion per month) seem like a lot, renew the debt ceiling at $50 billion per month this year, and $40 billion per month next year.
So, the law reads, "the debt ceiling shall be $16,050 billion on March 1 2013, $16,100 on April 1 2013, $16,150 on May 1 2013..." (I'm obviously simplifying) This is a constraint on spending that would not cause a periodic game of chicken, and might actually have some force.
0 comments